Thursday, July 11, 2013

May the odds be ever in your favor.

Yes, I watched Hunger Games. Twice.

This post isn’t about Katniss aka Jennifer Lawrence. It’s about odds. As in, the odds of pulling a certain card from a pack.

I emailed Chris over at Nachos Grande about this because he’s a math guru. My question was about the odds of pulling a black bordered Chrome refractor from 2013 Heritage. Not just any refractor either, but one of a particular player.

Since the black bordered Chrome refractors are inserted at a rate of 1:368 packs (for both retail and hobby), it makes sense that the odds of pulling one are 1:368 packs. That’s math I can understand.

Bear with me just a minute and this will make sense (or not).

If there are 64 of each refractor, for a total of 6400 refractors, and they are inserted 1:368 packs (overall) that should mean that Topps made 2,355,200 packs of 2013 Heritage. Does that sound right to anyone? I have no idea what their production numbers normally are so I don’t know if that sounds high, low or normal.

As I thought, and Chris reinforced, with 100 black bordered Chrome refractors available, that makes the odds of pulling any one specific player 1:36,800 packs. So if you’re hoping to pull your favorite player, forget about it. Chris pointed out that these numbers make sense if Topps really does load out the packs randomly, but who knows if they do that or not.

I said all that to show you this card that I pulled out of a blaster a couple of days ago.

That’s the favorite player from the favorite team of quite a number of bloggers. I don't have it sitting in front of me, but I think it's #52/64.  And it’s so nice looking I really want to keep it. Or trade if for one of the 6 Rangers black Chrome refractors that are available. I’ve looked and these Kershaws have sold on Ebay for anywhere from $15 to $40. It’s a beauty isn’t it?

I guess I beat the odds this time.


  1. Damn I wish I had something to deal for it.

    So beautiful.

  2. Wow, and Ebay 1/1, 52 is the last 2 numbers of the year that Topps first came out with a regular baseball set. 52 is also 13/16 of 64. Nice card by the way!

  3. Very nice! I pulled a Granderson last year, so it was cool getting a Yankee with such great odds.

    I won't lie, I read the Hungers Games books and watched the movie on a recent flight.

  4. take your picture, print it onto card-stock, and you have a a really good card. nice photo!

    I think you would have to also look at the odds on the rack packs and combine some numbers to get a better look at the production #s. at least in Heritage, I think all packs are the same if they are loose or inside a blaster; and there are no hanger boxes. so I think it is do-able to figure out.

  5. Nice card.

    I wonder could it be considered an "Oddball" card since you have to beat the odds to get it? OK so its a scarce insert.

  6. nice one grats ! if you ever want to get rid of it let me know of course !

  7. I say threaten to burn it, just to see how N.O. reacts.

  8. I don't know how you pull the stuff you pull. You need to write a book about it.

    (Ignoring the previous comment).

  9. It's too bad I don't need # 52 for the SNI set. That would be a wonderful addition.

    Great pull sir!!

  10. Nice pull!

    PS: The Hunger Games is great. Movie good, books awesome!

  11. Wow! Man, that is sweet! I'd love to pull something like that for the Outer Space giveaway. Here's to hoping to beat the odds myself!

  12. I remember sitting down and trying to calculate (or should I say estimate) how many packs card companies produced... whenever they gave odds on serial numbered inserts. Good times. And one more thing... great card!